Not so fast there, Jeb...

If Nate Silver turns out to be right on the Franken Recount, he should be hired...anywhere for anything he wants. (He predicted a 27 vote victory for Franken, right now it's standing at 22.)

And Nate went on to talk about the suddenly open seat in Florida.

[Martinez] was about even-money to retain his seat. Can his potential Republican replacements do better than that?

It depends, of course, on just who those replacements are. Generally, one of the big advantages that incumbents have -- even relatively unpopular ones -- is that they have an easy time raising funds; pretty much every incumbent senator running for re-election in 2008 had at least $5 million in his pocket, with the exception of a couple in non-competitive races in small states. New candidates rarely have access to that kind of capital.

...unless, of course, they are brand names like Jeb Bush, who is reportedly contemplating a run for Martinez' seat. Bush left office in 2006 with approval ratings in the +20 range; they may have diminished slightly since then as a result of Bush Fatigue, but Floridians have little problem distinguishing Jeb from George W., even if that's less true of the rest of the country. Bush, should he choose to run, will have most of the advantages that an incumbent usually has: capital, name recognition, organization, enough stature to deter primary challengers.

That is not to suggest that Bush would have a cakewalk into the Senate. He has his own baggage, and would be a fundraising magnet for Democrats. The most expensive senate race in 2006 was Hillary Clinton's in New York, which brought in a collective total of about $40 million, and the most expensive in 2008 was Norm Coleman's in Minnesota, which brought in a collective total of $35 million. Bush vs X. might be somewhere in that territory or even higher -- perhaps as high as $50 million -- and would almost certainly set the record for an open seat race.

Nevertheless, I think Martinez probably did do the Republicans a favor if their candidate winds up being Bush -- or Charlie Crist, who like Bush could run with most of the advantages of an incumbent. If it is anyone other than those two specifically, on the other hand, the fundraising and organizational strength is a lot to give up. Moreover, the presence of an open seat may be more attractive to prospective Democratic challengers. Florida CFO Alex Sink, who was reportedly about to pull out of a prospective senate run in 2010, is now reconsidering, according to Marc Ambinder. It is hard to imagine a Robert Wexler not thinking long and hard about wanting to stick it to Bush.

The most cautious way to put it is this: Florida was one of the top two senate races in the country before Martinez' announcement, and although the parameters now look a little different, it remains one of the top two now.