Just two weeks ago, after he watched 54 of his own members defect from an emergency spending bill to keep the government from shutting down, House Speaker John Boehner realized he was in a fix. The numbers told an important story -- that to keep the federal lights on, Boehner would need help from Democrats just to pass legislation through the House. And that would mean cutting a deal, and enraging his conservative rank and file.
At a jobs forum in the auditorium of the Capitol Visitors Center, he softened his rhetoric and acknowledged his weakened hand.
"It's never been lost on me that because we only control the House there are a lot of other players that we need to work with in order to come to any agreement to keep the government open," Boehner said. "But I'm confident that we'll be able to find a way to cut spending -- which we believe will lead to a better environment for business to hire people in America -- and keep the government open."
Something changed between then and now. This week, Boehner and House Republicans are drawing thick lines in the sand in budget negotiations with Democrats, and the threat of a shutdown -- something Boehner has insisted he wants to avoid -- has spiked. On Tuesday, principals on both sides spoke as if a shutdown wasn't just inevitable, but imminent. Cue finger-pointing.
Does that sound familiar? Well, that's because you have seen it all before, not just a decade ago between Newt and Bubba, but on your TeeVee:
The only difference is I think Harry Reid is going to be the one to say "Shut it down" instead of the President. Not as sexy for Prime-Time TV, but direct all the same.
Continuing:
So much of this has played out behind closed doors that it's hard to suss out exactly who's right. But we know that Republican rhetoric has stiffened, and that, after weeks of keeping their heads down, Democrats began leaking detailed accounts of the failed negotiations early this week. Republicans dispute these accounts, and say nothing has changed -- but something clearly has. And Republicans don't have a compelling explanation for it.
But the facts are complicated and weedy. So each party's spin machines are gearing up to convince the public that the other party's at fault. Those lines of argumentation are now clear. It's unclear who'll win that spin battle -- but it's worth pointing out that the White House has been prepared for this outcome for a long time.
All I can say is, never bet against the President when he has time to prepare for something. Personally, I knew the Libyan Speech was going to come off well. Why? He had 48 hours to prepare.
And this, he's been preparing for since November.
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