Here’s the game plan, as seen by Senate Dem aides: The next move is to sit tight and wait for the House to vote on Boehner's proposal. The idea is that with mounting conservative opposition, it could very well be defeated. If the Boehner plan goes down in the House, that would represent a serious blow to Boehner’s leadership, weakening his hand in negotiations.
“The Senate will wait to act until we see if Speaker Boehner is able to pass a bill in the House,” a senior Senate Democratic aide says. “At the moment that’s an open question.”
It’s unclear as of yet where most Tea Partyers will come down on the Boehner proposal, but House conservatives are privately expressing serious reservation about the plan, arguing that it doesn’t cut spending enough, and the Republican Study Committee is dismissing Boehner’s plan as not “a real solution.” Dems hope that if conservatives do sink Boehner’s plan, it will reveal clearly that Boehner does need Democratic votes to get anything passed.
At that point, the Senate would then pass Harry Reid’s proposal, and then kick it over to the House, which would increase pressure on Boehner to try to get it passed, since he was unable to pass his own plan.
The second alternative possibility being gamed out by Senate Dems would take place if the Boehner plan does manage to sneak through the House. Aides say Dems would then vote it down in the Senate. And here’s where it gets even more interesting.
Senate Dem aides say they would then use Boehner’s bill — which passed the House but died in the Senate — to expedidate their own proposal. Here’s how. They would use the “shell” of the Boehner bill as a vehicle to pass Harry Reid’s proposal, because for various procedural reasons House messages get expedited consideration. Senate Dems would vote to “amend” Boehner’s bill by replacing it completely with Reid’s proposal — which the Senate could then pass more quickly than they otherwise could.
After that, Reid’s proposal — having passed the Senate — would then get kicked back to the House. Having proved that Boehner’s plan can’t pass the Senate, Democrats would in effect be giving House Republicans a choice: Either pass the Reid proposal, or take the blame for default and the economic calamity that ensues.
I think we're headed toward option 1, because it looks like Boehner's plan is already tanking with some House GOP members. Dear old Dad, who I talked to this morning, thinks they really haven't started Whipping votes yet, and that's true, but remembering Joe Walsh's letter, I think Boehner starts out the day with 90 votes down, and thus we're headed for Reidsville.
Also, here's Jim Jordan (R-OH) saying something just a wee bit interesting:
A leading House conservative said Tuesday that enough Republicans oppose the debt-ceiling plan drafted by House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) to make Democratic support crucial to passing it.
“I am confident as of this morning that there were not 218 Republicans in support of this plan,” said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the chairman of the Republican Study Committee. The group comprises more than 170 House conservatives.
The comments from Jordan, who announced Monday that he would not support Boehner’s plan, come as several Republican members have expressed skepticism about or declined to weigh in on whether they might support a two-step increase in the country’s debt ceiling in exchange for $3 trillion in deficit savings.
Jordan said that members “appreciate the speaker’s hard work” but that the proposal would not do enough to get the country’s fiscal house in order.
Translation. Boehner...needs...Democrats.
