Now that the Speaker Boehner (apparently) doesn't have the votes to pass his own "Tea Party friendly" plan (because the Michelle Bachmann and the Tea Party has rejected it), its pretty clear that any Debt Ceiling plan will pass like it has always passed, with the votes of the President's party.
Of course, to do that, Boehner is going to have to come a little closer to Democratic positions, like increasing revenues, easing spending cuts, or...getting rid of both entirely and passing a clean damn bill.
He won't totally capitulate. After all, its still a GOP Majority in the House. They need to get something to hang on their wall.
But the final vote will probably have to look something like this: the overwhelming majority of Democrats (minus a few red state stragglers that we can live without anyway) and a few (between 50 and 70) establishment Republicans in the House (i.e., anyone's who's non-Tea Party) . And the usual suspects in the Senate, all the Democrats plus a 20-30 Republicans.
Mind you, if Boehner decides to go with the Reid plan, the only way it passes is with that formula, with that mix of Democrats and establishment Republicans.
Seems easy enough. Why isn't this happening?
Simply put, John Boehner wants to be Speaker, and the above referenced formula helps the country. It just doesn't help him stay Speaker.
It's easy to see a scenario where, provided Boehner does the right thing for the country, is prompty stabbed in the back by the Tea Party set who never wanted a deal at all....hello Speaker Cantor, unfortunately beating Rahmbo to the position of the first Jewish Speaker of the House.
Simply put the longer Boehner takes to realize that his Speakership is pretty much over (because if we default, it'll be over anyway), the longer it'll take for the Congress to cut a deal on the Debt Ceiling. When he realizes he can't get a deal done bowing to Tea Party demands, he'll use the above referenced formula and get it done.
The only question is...will it be too late?
