They're gonna cave...

Jed Levinson at his blog the Jed Report came up with this way first. Even though it's at his own blog, I took a cue from my Dad the mathematician, and re-do the math.

Yep, comes out the same.  We're gonna let him in.

I think Burris is a cheap hack, and I think that we should go through fire to make sure he's not seated...

That being said, Harry Reid is gonna cave.  First off, it's in his nature. Second off, the mathematics play to the Democrats.

From Nate Silver:

Presently the Democrats have a 57-member caucus, counting neither Burris nor Franken. However, because there are currently only 98 senators, this reduces the number of votes required to break a filibuster from 60 to 59. (Vacancies are not counted when calculating the number of votes needed to break a filibuster; three-fifths of 98 is 58.8, which rounds up to 59). Therefore, the Democrats would need two crossover votes to pass a cloture resolution.

But now, suppose that Franken gets seated but Burris doesn't. The Democrats add a member to their caucus, brining them to 58 members. However, with 99 senators rather than 98, the filibuster threshold goes back up to 60 votes (three-fifths of 99 is 59.4, but the rule in this instance requires rounding up). Thus, the Democrats remain two votes shy of breaking a filibuster.

Once the Democrats get senators seated in both Illinois and Minnesota, however, they'll have 59 votes out of the 60 they need, leaving them just one vote shy -- and Sens. Specter, Snowe, et. al. ripe for the picking.

Now, I got this transcript of this (Sunday) Morning's Meet The Press from the Jed Report:

MR. GREGORY: But are you willing to go to the mat on this to deny Roland Burris, if it requires going to the Supreme Court? Is it worth that effort?

SEN. REID: The state of Illinois deserves a vote in the United States Senate, and the people of the state of Illinois, the fifth most populous state in the union, deserve that vote. It’s too bad Blagojevich has diverted attention from the real issue. And we’ll—we’re—as I’ve indicated, we’re going to come—I’m going to meet with Senator McConnell, my Republican counterpart. I hope to do that Monday evening. I think it’s around 6:00 or something like that. We’ll talk about this. I hope we can solve this issue on a bipartisan basis.

MR. GREGORY: But there sounds to me like there may be some room here to negotiate and actually seat Burris?

SEN. REID: Hey, listen, David, I’m an old trial lawyer. There’s always room to negotiate.

MR. GREGORY: All right, so you’re not saying no completely that he won’t serve?

SEN. REID: That’s right.

Sigh.

The only thing that annoys me is that there are some Liberal blogs that are going to be celebrating this.