President Obama calls on both parties to come together to find a balanced approach to deficit reduction that lets us live within our means without hurting investments our economy needs to grow and create jobs.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Friday, July 8, 2011
The President's Interview with...a Seattle Local TV Station?
This was also caught by Only Adult In The Room originally, and it's taken me a while to get to it. The best part is the opening thirty seconds, where the reporter reveals that she went to High School with Stanley Ann Dunham, and the President's reaction.
Other than that, it's the standard sit down over the Economy, the Debt Ceiling, etc.
Other than that, it's the standard sit down over the Economy, the Debt Ceiling, etc.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
So how much leverage do Congressional Democrats have in the Debt Ceiling Fight?
Apparently, quite a bit, according to Jonathan Bernstein, writing today at The Plum Line:
Remember, this has always been the key thing. John Boehner places being Speaker over the fiscal health of the Country.
Greg asked earlier, “Do House Democrats have any leverage in the debt talks?” Barack Obama’s quick statement today to reporters made it clear that: yes, they do.
By emphasizing that “Democrats and Republicans are going to be required in both chambers,” the president inched towards defining a standard under which any grand bargain will require majorities of both parties in both Houses of Congress.
In reality, Obama was basically acknowledging the mathematics and politics of the situation. We know that at least 50 of the 240 House Republicans, and probably a good deal more, are not going to vote for a debt limit increase no matter what. That means they’ll need at least about 30 Democrats, and probably a good deal more. If a deal is going to need close to half of House Democrats, then it almost certainly needs Nancy Pelosi.
The truly goofy thing about this whole mess is the outsized influence enjoyed by those 50 or so House Republicans that won’t be voting for any deal, no matter how much it might tilt towards conservative priorities. One would think that they’ve dealt themselves out. However, they — along with their slightly less rejectionist conservative collaborators — are the key restraint on John Boehner. As Jonathan Chait notes today, what their opposition does is make some of the deals that are mathematically possible into political poison for the Speaker. He isn’t going to endorse anything that won’t get the approval (in private at least — they may not vote that way) of a strong majority of the House Republican conference, because otherwise he risks a revolt.
For House Democrats, the best strategy (no surprise here) is unity. If they can maintain that, then they have quite a bit of leverage. If not, Boehner can start trying to pick off 25 or 30 or 35 Democrats, and perhaps he can make that work. My guess, however, is that ultimately nothing will pass unless it has genuine leadership support — and not just votes — from Democrats and Republicans in both chambers. Nancy Pelosi certainly knows that, and as the President himself said today, he’s very aware that he needs Democrats to get this done.
Remember, this has always been the key thing. John Boehner places being Speaker over the fiscal health of the Country.
"[By Sunday], the parties will at least know where each other’s bottom lines are..." (VIDEO)
From the prepared remarks:
Hello, everybody. I’m going to make a very brief statement.
I just completed a meeting with all the congressional leaders from both chambers, from both parties, and I have to say that I thought it was a very constructive meeting. People were frank. We discussed the various options available to us. Everybody reconfirmed the importance of completing our work and raising the debt limit ceiling so that the full faith and credit of the United States of America is not impaired.
What we decided was that staffs, as well as leadership, will be working during the weekend, and that I will reconvene congressional leaders here on Sunday with the expectation that, at that point, the parties will at least know where each other’s bottom lines are and will hopefully be in a position to then start engaging in the hard bargaining that’s necessary to get a deal done.
I want to emphasize that nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to. And the parties are still far apart on a wide range of issues. But, again, I thought that all the leaders here came in a spirit of compromise, in a spirit of wanting to solve problems on behalf of the American people. Everybody acknowledged that the issue of our debt and our deficit is something that needs to be tackled now. Everybody acknowledged that in order to do that, Democrats and Republicans are going to be required in each chamber. Everybody acknowledged that we have to get this done before the hard deadline of August 2nd to make sure that America does not default for the first time on its obligations. And everybody acknowledged that there’s going to be pain involved politically on all sides, but our biggest obligation is to make sure that we’re doing the right thing by the American people, creating an environment in which we can grow the economy and make sure that more and more people are being put back to work.
So I want to thank all the leaders. I thought it was a very constructive meeting. And I will be seeing them back here on Sunday. A lot of work will be done between now and then.
A quick summary of this morning's "Grand Bargain" news...
Okay, so it rolls down like this.
Last night and this morning, various papers, including the Washington Post, and New York Times, all went to press saying that the President is going to propose some kind of Grand Bargain on the Deficit to get the Debt Ceiling raised. Said deal would include four trillion (not two trillion) in cuts combined with one trillion in new revenues. Part of the cuts on the table would be entitlement spending from Social Security and Medicare, including the possibility of means teasting.
Again, all speculation and rumor. Actual details as to exactly what those cuts and revenues are are...frankly...sketchy.
St. John of Orange follows by saying "Yeah, we'll do the revenues, but only if we lower ALL tax rates." Which is something the President wanted to do anyway, given what he said at the State of the Union.
The White House quickly pushed back on the various stories, even though (I'm assuming) that they leaked them in the first place. (Trial balloon anyone?)
While AARP and some uber-Liberal groups are howling, you'll notice that so far...Congressional Democrats aren't (yet, at least not really). Which leads to the next theory, that this is really a stunt on the part of Democrats to appear reasonable to the public because everyone knows the GOP has shifted so far into looneyville that no deal on the deficit is possible.
And on top of everything else, the GOP is starting to sweat a little at the prospect of the President using the Constitution to ignore the Debt Ceiling Limit, because when asked in his Twitter Town Hall yesterday, the President didn't exactly rule it out.
Last night and this morning, various papers, including the Washington Post, and New York Times, all went to press saying that the President is going to propose some kind of Grand Bargain on the Deficit to get the Debt Ceiling raised. Said deal would include four trillion (not two trillion) in cuts combined with one trillion in new revenues. Part of the cuts on the table would be entitlement spending from Social Security and Medicare, including the possibility of means teasting.
Again, all speculation and rumor. Actual details as to exactly what those cuts and revenues are are...frankly...sketchy.
St. John of Orange follows by saying "Yeah, we'll do the revenues, but only if we lower ALL tax rates." Which is something the President wanted to do anyway, given what he said at the State of the Union.
The White House quickly pushed back on the various stories, even though (I'm assuming) that they leaked them in the first place. (Trial balloon anyone?)
While AARP and some uber-Liberal groups are howling, you'll notice that so far...Congressional Democrats aren't (yet, at least not really). Which leads to the next theory, that this is really a stunt on the part of Democrats to appear reasonable to the public because everyone knows the GOP has shifted so far into looneyville that no deal on the deficit is possible.
And on top of everything else, the GOP is starting to sweat a little at the prospect of the President using the Constitution to ignore the Debt Ceiling Limit, because when asked in his Twitter Town Hall yesterday, the President didn't exactly rule it out.
Saturday, July 2, 2011
The Fireside Chat for July 2nd, 2011 (VIDEO)
President Obama addresses the need to reduce the nation’s deficit while creating jobs across the country and wishes Americans a happy Fourth of July.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Pandora's Box, Jurassic Park 2, the 83-17 split and how the Debt Ceiling gets raised...one way or the other.
It’s clear that the volume has suddenly turned up on the 14th Amendment argument.
Basically, where we’re at is this. Talks on the Debt Ceiling have broken down. The GOP was originally invested in a Debt Ceiling deal that had an 85-15 split of spending cuts to tax increases, that number coming from a report from the Conservative American Enterprise Institute. This was a report highlighted in fact on Speaker Boehner’s website. (Bet you dollars to doughnuts that that report has been taken down).
The good news in all this is that the spending cut number (around 2.4 Trillion over ten years) has pretty much been agreed to. This would be the 85 number.
Well, the Democrats offered an 83-17 split on spending cuts to tax increases (which included ending subsidies for Oil Companies and a Payroll Tax Cut), and that’s when Eric Cantor bailed on the talks and things pretty much collapsed.
Then the President spoke in a Press Conference that I enjoyed mightily. Still, the fact that the President had to speak was bad news because (as Ezra said on the day of the presser):
Let me take a moment to answer one of Lawrence's questions. He asked, why didn't the Obama White House just use the Clinton model for deficit reduction?
Ummm, Lawrence. Have you met today's Republican party?
So what happens now?
Well, frankly…it depends on how batshit insane the Republicans are, and how pissed off the Chamber of Commerce actually gets.
Remember the Chamber of Commerce warned Republicans flat out, that should they fail to raise the debt ceiling; “We will get rid of you”. Of course the Teabagger Caucus did not react kindly to that threat, but I have no doubt that the Chamber is serious. A Debt Default is going to have catastrophic and frankly, unpredictable consequences to the greater, planet-wide Economy. Remember September 15th, 2008? (aka, the day Barack Obama won election), well…that only times ten.
If you’re a conservative, things look pretty simple. You’ve got a President in the White House you don’t like. You’ve got a stalled economy that stalled because of your policies and ideas, but you’re still committed to those same policies and ideas because even though they make the middle class miserable, they don't count in your world. All that does count are the people you really work for (Rich folks and Multinational corporations). If you cooperate with the sitting President (aka, doing your job) there’s a chance things will get better for the people. Can't have that, because that would mean the President would get re-elected. However, if you hold out for your most cherished, bat-shit insane policy ideas that you wouldn’t even let see the light of day under a Bush Administration, well, not only can you stall any economic momentum for a recovery (thereby damaging the President), but you can also appeal and excite your own base in the process. WIN-WIN!!!
I would first refer the Chamber of Commerce to the story of Pandora’s Box. You let these batshit insane Teabagger shitheads into the tent, this is what you get:
In case, you don't understand why I'm making this particular movie reference, or have (rightfully) forgotten Jurassic Park 2. The idiots (aka, the main characters) decided to "rescue" a baby T-Rex. That'd be Mama in the video, sniffing clothes that are soaked in the baby's blood. Think of them as tax breaks for Corporate Jet owners for the purposes of this argument. "Hilarity" ensues after that.
The more the Chamber stands by its threat to destroy any Republican who stands against a raise in the Debt Ceiling, the more likely there is to be a deal. Period.
Fortunately, we are seeing signs of life from the Democrats. One, they've pretty much thrown down a hard marker on Medicare cuts. Ain't happenin' chief, what else you got? Senator Schumer is taking to the airwaves repeatedly to accuse Republicans publicly of the scenario I’ve outlined. And yesterday, on Keith’s new Countdown show, he brought forth Ryan Grim to first discuss the 14th Amendment scenario.
My inclination the moment Keith brought it up was to dismiss it (after all, this is Keith we’re talking about). But then Lawrence brought it up as well.
I still kinda dismissed it, but the fact that he's got Bruce Bartlett to agree with the notion carries some weight with me.. But now, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has brought it up today, even though he has his doubts.
Also, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's brought it up as well.
I still see this as officially a push by the Democrats to get this idea out there.
The Senator from Wall Street is right. We don’t know what the economic consequences would be of a debt default, we also don’t know how markets would react to the President simply ignoring Congress and continuing to borrow money.
If you were interested in buying up U.S. Bonds, how would you react to the President taking the podium and saying, basically, screw Cantor and Boehner. We’re going ahead, business as usual. My guess is a Bond buyer might hesitate, and say “Should we be buying this stuff. Is it safe? What does it mean?”
Between this threat, this new Nuclear Option, and the release of a new drop-dead default date of July 22, it’s clear the full court press is on.
Basically, what I see happening is this. The Democrats rattle the Nuclear Option theory. Republicans howl in protest. Jim DeMint says the Constitution didn’t mean what it says. Someone tries to change the Constitution on Wikipedia, and ultimately, the GOP quietly agrees to the 83-17 split a week before the deadline and declares victory.
Of course, that'd mean dealing with a sane GOP. And frankly there's no evidence that they're out there.
I mean, for pity’s sake, you watch the Teabagger shithead caucus, always crying for their love of the Constitution is going to attack the President for sticking to the letter and law of the Constitution. Watch it happen. There’s never an egg-timer around when you need it. (Hat tip, Randi Rhodes).
The President is going to have to carry through with his unspoken threat, and while dear ol' Doctor Dad would disagree, I think the dire nature of what could happen would force to President to do it. I mean, if the GOP won’t deal fairly. If any bill the Democrats propose gets filibustered in the Senate. If the Teabaggers bite the hand of their Chamber of Commerce masters, what option is Obama going to have left?
As ugly as the consequences might be, they’d be worse if he did. If DeMint won’t come back to reality, pick the Constitutional fight, and pull the Debt Ceiling trigger. What would we have to lose?
Basically, where we’re at is this. Talks on the Debt Ceiling have broken down. The GOP was originally invested in a Debt Ceiling deal that had an 85-15 split of spending cuts to tax increases, that number coming from a report from the Conservative American Enterprise Institute. This was a report highlighted in fact on Speaker Boehner’s website. (Bet you dollars to doughnuts that that report has been taken down).
The good news in all this is that the spending cut number (around 2.4 Trillion over ten years) has pretty much been agreed to. This would be the 85 number.
Well, the Democrats offered an 83-17 split on spending cuts to tax increases (which included ending subsidies for Oil Companies and a Payroll Tax Cut), and that’s when Eric Cantor bailed on the talks and things pretty much collapsed.
Then the President spoke in a Press Conference that I enjoyed mightily. Still, the fact that the President had to speak was bad news because (as Ezra said on the day of the presser):
The best advice I’ve gotten for assessing the debt-ceiling negotiations was to “watch for the day when the White House goes public.” As long as the Obama administration was refusing to attack Republicans publicly, my source said, they believed they could cut a deal. And that held true. They were quiet when the negotiations were going on. They were restrained after Eric Cantor and Jon Kyl walked out last week. Press Secretary Jay Carney simply said, “We are confident that we can continue to seek common ground and that we will achieve a balanced approach to deficit reduction.” But today they went public.
Let me take a moment to answer one of Lawrence's questions. He asked, why didn't the Obama White House just use the Clinton model for deficit reduction?
Ummm, Lawrence. Have you met today's Republican party?
So what happens now?
Well, frankly…it depends on how batshit insane the Republicans are, and how pissed off the Chamber of Commerce actually gets.
Remember the Chamber of Commerce warned Republicans flat out, that should they fail to raise the debt ceiling; “We will get rid of you”. Of course the Teabagger Caucus did not react kindly to that threat, but I have no doubt that the Chamber is serious. A Debt Default is going to have catastrophic and frankly, unpredictable consequences to the greater, planet-wide Economy. Remember September 15th, 2008? (aka, the day Barack Obama won election), well…that only times ten.
If you’re a conservative, things look pretty simple. You’ve got a President in the White House you don’t like. You’ve got a stalled economy that stalled because of your policies and ideas, but you’re still committed to those same policies and ideas because even though they make the middle class miserable, they don't count in your world. All that does count are the people you really work for (Rich folks and Multinational corporations). If you cooperate with the sitting President (aka, doing your job) there’s a chance things will get better for the people. Can't have that, because that would mean the President would get re-elected. However, if you hold out for your most cherished, bat-shit insane policy ideas that you wouldn’t even let see the light of day under a Bush Administration, well, not only can you stall any economic momentum for a recovery (thereby damaging the President), but you can also appeal and excite your own base in the process. WIN-WIN!!!
I would first refer the Chamber of Commerce to the story of Pandora’s Box. You let these batshit insane Teabagger shitheads into the tent, this is what you get:
In case, you don't understand why I'm making this particular movie reference, or have (rightfully) forgotten Jurassic Park 2. The idiots (aka, the main characters) decided to "rescue" a baby T-Rex. That'd be Mama in the video, sniffing clothes that are soaked in the baby's blood. Think of them as tax breaks for Corporate Jet owners for the purposes of this argument. "Hilarity" ensues after that.
The more the Chamber stands by its threat to destroy any Republican who stands against a raise in the Debt Ceiling, the more likely there is to be a deal. Period.
Fortunately, we are seeing signs of life from the Democrats. One, they've pretty much thrown down a hard marker on Medicare cuts. Ain't happenin' chief, what else you got? Senator Schumer is taking to the airwaves repeatedly to accuse Republicans publicly of the scenario I’ve outlined. And yesterday, on Keith’s new Countdown show, he brought forth Ryan Grim to first discuss the 14th Amendment scenario.
My inclination the moment Keith brought it up was to dismiss it (after all, this is Keith we’re talking about). But then Lawrence brought it up as well.
I still kinda dismissed it, but the fact that he's got Bruce Bartlett to agree with the notion carries some weight with me.. But now, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has brought it up today, even though he has his doubts.
"It's certainly worth exploring," Schumer said. "I think it needs a little more exploration and study. It's probably not right to pursue at this point and you wouldn't want to go ahead and issue the debt and then have the courts reverse it."
I still see this as officially a push by the Democrats to get this idea out there.
The Senator from Wall Street is right. We don’t know what the economic consequences would be of a debt default, we also don’t know how markets would react to the President simply ignoring Congress and continuing to borrow money.
If you were interested in buying up U.S. Bonds, how would you react to the President taking the podium and saying, basically, screw Cantor and Boehner. We’re going ahead, business as usual. My guess is a Bond buyer might hesitate, and say “Should we be buying this stuff. Is it safe? What does it mean?”
Between this threat, this new Nuclear Option, and the release of a new drop-dead default date of July 22, it’s clear the full court press is on.
Basically, what I see happening is this. The Democrats rattle the Nuclear Option theory. Republicans howl in protest. Jim DeMint says the Constitution didn’t mean what it says. Someone tries to change the Constitution on Wikipedia, and ultimately, the GOP quietly agrees to the 83-17 split a week before the deadline and declares victory.
Of course, that'd mean dealing with a sane GOP. And frankly there's no evidence that they're out there.
I mean, for pity’s sake, you watch the Teabagger shithead caucus, always crying for their love of the Constitution is going to attack the President for sticking to the letter and law of the Constitution. Watch it happen. There’s never an egg-timer around when you need it. (Hat tip, Randi Rhodes).
The President is going to have to carry through with his unspoken threat, and while dear ol' Doctor Dad would disagree, I think the dire nature of what could happen would force to President to do it. I mean, if the GOP won’t deal fairly. If any bill the Democrats propose gets filibustered in the Senate. If the Teabaggers bite the hand of their Chamber of Commerce masters, what option is Obama going to have left?
As ugly as the consequences might be, they’d be worse if he did. If DeMint won’t come back to reality, pick the Constitutional fight, and pull the Debt Ceiling trigger. What would we have to lose?
Moments like this are what's going to destroy Mitt Romney (VIDEO)
From Democratic Rapid Repsonse, first highlighted by The Only Adult in the Room:
Living up to his nickname, Multiple Choice Mitt...
Living up to his nickname, Multiple Choice Mitt...
Thursday, June 30, 2011
President Clinton: "I'll be suprised if he's not re-elected. I've always told him he would be..."
Bubba on the 2012 GOP Field.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
In case you're worried at all about the Debt Ceiling Vote, two items to consider...
1) Read the Marc Ambinder story from yesterday.
2) Watch this video that Matt Ygelsias spotted back in May. Still useful!
Two great tastes that taste great together!
2) Watch this video that Matt Ygelsias spotted back in May. Still useful!
Two great tastes that taste great together!
Chris Matthews on the President's Press Conference: "Chuck, I heard the earth move today..."
First up, the video of the President's Press Conference:
I got to it just as the President laid out the Congressional Republicans on their Tax stance.
Here's Chris Matthew's chiming in:
I got to it just as the President laid out the Congressional Republicans on their Tax stance.
Here's Chris Matthew's chiming in:
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Hey, Teabaggers! You do know that your stance against the Debt Ceiling may go against...the Founding Fathers, right?
From Ryan Grim:
HA!!!
Growing increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for a deal that would raise the debt ceiling, Democratic senators are revisiting a solution to the crisis that rests on a simple proposition: The debt ceiling itself is unconstitutional.
"The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law... shall not be questioned," reads the 14th Amendment.
"This is an issue that's been raised in some private debate between senators as to whether in fact we can default, or whether that provision of the Constitution can be held up as preventing default," Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), an attorney, told The Huffington Post Tuesday. "I don't think, as of a couple weeks ago, when this was first raised, it was seen as a pressing option. But I'll tell you that it's going to get a pretty strong second look as a way of saying, 'Is there some way to save us from ourselves?'"
By declaring the debt ceiling unconstitutional, the White House could continue to meet its financial obligations, leaving Tea Party-backed Republicans in the difficult position of arguing against the plain wording of the Constitution. Bipartisan negotiators are debating the size of the cuts, now in the trillions, that will come along with raising the debt ceiling.
HA!!!
Still more interesting...
The President is gonna hold a Presser tomorrow. 11:30 am, Eastern. 8:30am, Pacific.
Before any of y'all panic about the stalled Debt Ceiling talks, there's may be (I say MAY be) a strategy at work here...
Consider this, from Marc Ambinder now of the National Journal:
The two principals in the debt-ceiling talks, President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, began talking on Monday with the same deadline: August 2, when the federal government will default on its debt. But Obama’s clock is running slower. And that means his leverage may ultimately be greater if he waits for several weeks before making a deal.
Obama’s political apogee will be in late July, when, if there’s no deal, the bond market will begin to panic, leading interest rates to rise and the stock market to fall. That’s when the public will begin to understand what happens when the U.S. can’t make its payments to creditors. That’s when the president can use his bully pulpit to call for an adult conversation.
That’s why Republicans want the White House to focus on vote counts right now. What combination of policies will exceed the necessary threshold for passage in the House and the Senate? Boehner is willing to concede that a debt-ceiling deal based on Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget plan may not get 218 votes. And Republicans have already conceded that they’re willing to cut significantly from defense appropriations to get them.
What Boehner would like the White House to concede early is that its effort to, say, end oil-company subsidies, raise taxes on individuals making $500,000 and up, or curtail sugar and ethanol tax breaks, would also fall short. If the vote were tomorrow, he’d probably get a higher spending-cut to deficit-trigger ratio from Democrats, too. He’d get close to $2 trillion in real cuts over 10 years.
Boehner's bottom line: real spending cuts that exceed the amount by which the debt limit is raised looks reasonable today. Since a large minority of his conference does not believe that the August 2 date is real, Boehner's aides insist that it's foolhardy to think they are any more likely to accept revenue raisers (including getting rid of tax breaks) as the weeks go by.
But Obama knows that vote counts in the absence of the crucible of crisis will differ when Wall Street, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and other traditionally Republican interests begin to nervously walk lawmakers out of their partisan garrisons.
And he’s betting that Republicans, having learned that his team is on nimble feet when it plays close to the edge of the cliff, will concede more up front than they did in December, when only the threat of a government shutdown (darn it, the Smithsonian would be closed!) loomed as the existential sword of Damocles. The longer Obama waits, the more Republicans will privately panic, knowing that their leverage decreases steadily as the weeks go by -- and exponentially at the turn of August.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
The Fireside Chat for June 25th, 2011 (VIDEO)
After taking most of the month off to prepare for, then enjoy a vacation, I'm diving back into Ft. McHenry with (hopefully) renewed vigor.
Thus, I present the President's weekly address.
Thus, I present the President's weekly address.
Speaking from Carnegie Mellon University, President Obama discusses the vital role advanced manufacturing will have in strengthening our economy and creating good, middle-class jobs.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
The Fireside Chat for June 18th, 2011 (VIDEO)
On Father's Day weekend, President Obama reflects on his experience as a parent and discusses the challenges and necessity of being a good father.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Saturday, June 11, 2011
The Fireside Chat for June 11th, 2011 (VIDEO)
The President outlines how the government is partnering with the private sector to ensure workers have the skills they need to be competitive and grow the economy.
Sunday, June 5, 2011
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