ELIZABETH RUBIN: Yes and no. I mean, you could look at it another way, which is that if the U.S. is not just money bags then it means that other countries realize they actually have to do some work with the U.S. and with whoever is in the region. So in a way it makes the world much more interdependent. Rather than seeing the U.S. as - the U.S. is either going to do its policy for better or for worse 'cause they've got all the money. It doesn't work that way anymore.
FRED KAPLAN: Yeah, you know, the Cold War was actually an anomaly in history. I mean, this idea of two pretty stable blocs that faced off. And each of them controlled its half of the world. And that at one point, one of the sides just went poof. And I think the mistake that the Bush administration made at the end of the Cold War was they said, "We won the Cold War; therefore, we control everything and everybody has to bow down. We are stronger than ever. We are like Rome. Everybody has to do what we want."
But what was really going on, we were actually in some ways weaker than we were before because, in the old days, everybody kind of vaguely on our side, would look over to their shoulder and know that, oh geez, the Russian bear's over there. So, okay, I'll go against my interests to go along with this because the alternatives are too dreadful.
Well, now, the bear's gone. These countries, they can go their own way, pursue their own interests without much attention to what Washington says.
So what the next president has to do is really to adjust to America's reduced place in the world and to - how to advance our interests in a world where we actually control much less. And it's very difficult. But it also provides possibilities because there are ways of reciprocal benefits for both countries. And as Elizabeth was saying, you can create diplomatic situations where other countries feel a stake in the matter, too.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Obama's Opportunities?
David Sirota. Still a tool.
Madelyn Dunham Laid To Rest...
The White House Counsel...
According to Wikipedia, the Counsel's role is to advise the President on all legal issues concerning the President and the White House.
The Office of Counsel to the President was created in 1943, and is responsible for advising on all legal aspects of policy questions, legal issues arising in connection with the President's decision to sign or veto legislation, ethical questions, financial disclosures, and conflicts of interest during employment and post employment. The Counsel's Office also helps define the line between official and political activities, oversees executive appointments and judicial selection, handles Presidential pardons, reviews legislation and Presidential statements, and handles lawsuits against the President in his role as President, as well as serving as the White House contact for the Department of Justice.
Although the White House Counsel offers legal advice to the President, the Counsel does so in the President's official capacity, and does not serve as the President's personal attorney. Therefore, controversy has emerged over the scope of the attorney-client privilege between the Counsel and the President. It is clear, however, that the privilege does not apply in personal matters, such as impeachment proceedings; thus, in such situations the President relies on a personal attorney for confidential legal advice.
A Matter of Bad Timing...
Lobbyists: The perfect process stories for a Saturday...
After campaigning on promises to end the influence of lobbyists in the White House, Mr. Obama has imposed rules that bar officials on his transition team from handling any issues in areas of policy where they have lobbied over the last 12 months or from seeking to influence the same agencies for the next 12 months.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Ambinder: Already giving up on 2012?
Ambinder: All the Hillary speculation may mean nothing...
Atlantic Monthly's Marc Ambinder on the Hillary speculation:
Has Sen. Barack Obama ask Hillary Clinton to serve as his Secretary of State?Ambinder goes on to speculate on the complications (all reasons why I don't think its going to be her).
The Huffington Post, citing two sources, says yes, as does CNN's Gloria Borger.
I confess I cannot get sources to tell me this, which means that (a) they've got better sources than I do, which is quite possible, (b) or it isn't true, which is also possible. I know, very helpful. Sorry.
Here's what might be happening:
It is possible that Obama asked Clinton to serve, and that Clinton, hoping that it wouldn't leak, promptly told a bunch of aides, former aides and friends
It is possible that Obama asked Clinton to serve and that the Obama transition / campaign apparatus is parceling out leaks in order to service the news cycle somehow or habituate Democrats to the idea, or even to somehow float a trial balloon for world leaders who happen to be in Washington this weekend.
It is possible that Obama was solicitous; asked Clinton where she might want to serve, and that Clinton was left with the the impression that she had been offered a job.
It is possible that Obama was solicitous and genuinely interested in hearing from Clinton and genuinely wanted to know what she wanted to -- or planned to -- do over the next four years.
It is possible that Obama offered the job to her, that she asked him whether she could take a few days to think about, and that someone downstream found out about it from the principals and leaked it without authorization.
It is possible that Obama was solicitous and genuinely interested in hearing from Clinton and genuinely wanted to know what she wanted to do ... and downstream, based on what Clinton and Obama told people about the meeting, a mistranslation occurred and people became convinced that Obama had offered her something.
When is a Leak a Leak?
First, Keith Olbermann talked with Richard Wolffe of Newsweek who seems to reiterate some of the things he said on Wednesday. Calm down. Chill out. We don't necessarily know anything. (Richard comes on about 2:10 into the video).
Next, Keith talked to Craig Crawford of Congressional Quarterly, who seems to suggest that maybe, just maybe the leaks are intentional.
Even Rachel seems to throw some cold water on the idea.
TPM: Senator Begich...
But the best news comes from TPM's Eric Kleefield.
The Anchorage Daily News points out that some of these new ballots have come from the Mat-Su area, the right-wing stronghold that gave us Sarah Palin -- so the fact that Begich's lead is still going up is a very bad sign for the incumbent Republican. Not only is the pool of remaining votes shrinking, but Stevens is running out of GOP areas that could put him over the top.
Imitation is the sincerest form of...something.
Meet your second new White House Senior Adviser...
I guess this is officially kill the Senator Jarrett, and Cabinet rumors.
Not the smoothest performance on camera, but you get a nice vibe from her. Professional and Smart. She's known the Obamas for years, knows what makes them tick, and isn't a yes-woman.
Huffington Post had this to say (and it makes sense):
Jarrett's White House role may be similar to the one played by Karen Hughes in President Bush's first term, the Washington Post speculates, "providing political advice while keeping him grounded."
AP: Richardson Meets with The Boss....
I'm starting to think the Hillary's been offered it meme is not yet accurate.
He is my hands down first choice for the job. When things got bad for the Bush Administration in their deals with Kim Jong-Il, the Republicans actually turned to the Governor of New Mexico (and former U.N. Ambassador to go to Pyongyang and talk for them.)
I guess Chris Cuomo's a Racist...
If I remember right, Chris Cuomo has an "association" with his Brother, former New York Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo, who as a Hillary supporter said of the President-Elect-to-be:
It's not a TV crazed race. Frankly, you can't buy your way into it. You can't shuck and jive at a press conference. All those moves you can make with the press don't work when you're in someone's living room.January 10, 2008
I mean, I'm just following the same logic Mr. Cuomo used on Mr. Ayers.
Bayh gets the Senate rules wrong...
And the final thing I'd say is, if he does retain his chairmanship, we still exert oversight over him and control over him. He doesn't have the ability to just do whatever he wants. The caucus still has the right to remove him from that position at any time if he starts going off on some kind of tangent.
Kinda what I was pinning my hopes on. Problem is, it won't work out that way.
According to former Democratic Senate Staffer Martin Paone (don't worry, he hasn't heard of you, either) if the Democrats would attempt such a switch, mid-year, for any reason, the Republicans would likely filibuster it.
"It takes a Senate resolution to change a chairmanship, and that resolution could be subject to a filibuster," Paone told the Huffington Post. Put simply, under Bayh's proposed scenario, Republicans would have every reason to filibuster a new Senate resolution taking Lieberman's chairmanship away if he was proving an effective antagonist of President Obama.
Paone noted that a similar game of political chess played out in the Senate's recent history. "We had a similar situation in the past with a Republican moderate senator, Mark Hatfield from Oregon, who voted the wrong way in the eyes of [former Sen. Rick] Santorum and others on the constitutional amendment on a balanced budget," Paone said. "There were rumblings they wanted to take his chairmanship away. But the ranking member on the committee was [Democratic] Sen. Robert Byrd, who wrote Hatfield a nice note saying, 'if they ever try to take your chairmanship away, I'll make sure we [Democrats] will filibuster such a resolution."
LA Times: Target the Donors...
More than a week after the passage of Proposition 8, activists opposed to the ban on gay marriage have shifted their protests to new arenas -- using boycotts to target businesses and individuals who contributed to the winning side.
And now there's word that the head of the Los Angeles Film Festival, Rich Raddon, himself a Mormon, gave $1500 to Yes on 8, and now may be about to lose his job.
It's unfair (and I'm pretty sure illegal) to fire someone for their Political and Religious beliefs...on the other hand, if no one will sit down with you and do business with you, how's he gonna be expected to do his job?
Leahy: Don't Let The Door Hit You...
UPDATE (11:41am Pacific): Direct quote:
"I'm one who does not feel that somebody should be rewarded with a major chairmanship after doing what he did."
Ooooh.
UPDATE (3:04m Pacific): Now Senator Bernie Saunders (I-VT) is saying it, too.
"To reward Senator Lieberman with a major committee chairmanship would be a slap in the face of millions of Americans who worked tirelessly for Barack Obama and who want to see real change in our country," Sanders in the statement sent our way by his office.
"Appointing someone to a major post who led the opposition to everything we are fighting for is not 'change we can believe in,'" Sanders continued. "I very much hope that Senator Lieberman stays in the Democratic caucus and is successful in regaining the confidence of those whom he has disappointed. This is not a time, however, in which he should be rewarded with a major committee chairmanship."
Secretary Clinton...
So let's just cut to the chase. Pros:
The Clinton brand is still respected around the world. Having her would breathe a sigh of relief into World Capitols everywhere (except maybe Moscow and Tehran).
Senator Clinton can definitely do the job.
And it always helps to have a bridge to the Big Dog.
It also makes good Political sense in that no one can accuse Obama of dissing her now. And, if you want to build a "Team of Rivals", giving your Number 1 rival prime real estate in the Cabinet is good thinking.
Cons:
Realistically, the Secretary will serve only four years, after that...what? She wouldn't go back to the Senate. That seat'll be taken. The idea of her running again in 2016 as a Former Senator and Secretary of State? Very few Cabinet Members have gone on to higher office...if any.
Politically, she's shown more of an interest in Domestic Policy than Foreign Policy. The Big Dog's more of a Foreign Policy guy.
Also, with all due deference to Senator Clinton's many skills, aren't there better people for the job?
And what about the Big Dog, and his Business and Foundation dealings? They'll come up in Confirmation Hearings, even though I expect her to easily be confirmed. (This is the Club after all, and the Club looks after its own).
UPDATE (2:12pm Pacific): According to a widely circulated report in the Huffington Post, Hillary's been offered the Job. She's asked for time to think it over, and that request has been granted.
Another pro, for the Obama side. Nothin' like neutralizing your chief rival with a big, big job. Bush did the same thing in 2000 with seemingly his top rival, Colin Powell.
Change.gov: Obama to meet with McCain on Monday...
The incoming Chief of Staff and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) will be joining them.
I can't claim credit for noticing this first, but...have you noticed who's missing from this get-together??
AP: The Fireside Chat...21st Century Style...
The first of these "Fireside Chats" will be available this Saturday at the Transition Website.
Why I remain an Ex-Catholic...
But wait...it gets worse. The Administrator of the diocese of Charleston has backed him up.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Lord Cheney...
Yeah, kinda reminds me of that.
Senator Feingold...
But, I like Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI). I respect him, and I generally agree with him, especially on this.
Funny thing is, this uproar is from Murdoch's Fishwrap, and we're still not sure it's even accurate.
I don't think the President-Elect is going to let us down. I just wish folks would chill out and wait for the man to have Executive Authority, before hitting him with their wish lists.
No wonder they wouldn't let him buy the Cubs...
President-Elect Obama's First Big Mistake
Obama's economic advisory team looks more like a semester's worth of guest speakers for an MBA class than a team that can truly help him. Entrepreneurs will lead us out of this mess. Talk to them.
Entrepreneurs, who eschewed Regulation and Oversight also led us into this mess, Mark.
BTW, Mark. The Mavs are 2-5 out of the gate. Tend to your own backyard before criticizing others.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
A Little More Rachel Bashing...
He presents...and I can't believe I'm saying this...a good reason for keeping Lieberman in the caucus.
Bayh: One of two things will be likely to happen if we were to kick him out of his chairmanship. No. 1, he might very well decide to just resign from the Senate. You know, he probably would not want to be a person without a home, wandering the hallways without any influence of any kind. And Connecticut has a Republican governor, who would appoint a pure Republican to that seat, who would vote against the wishes of the president-elect and the Democratic caucus, you know, the vast, vast majority of the time. That's No. 1.
No. 2, Lieberman, Joe Lieberman might decide to stay and be embittered. And what would happen there would be from time to time, we have close votes. You've been reporting on the Alaska race and the Minnesota race and the Georgia race. We could be at 58, 59, maybe even 60 votes. Every two or three or four months, there's going to be a critically important vote, very close, every vote will count. And it might come down to one vote.
Now, if Senator Lieberman has a strong view, he'll vote his conscience, but if he's conflicted, frankly, you know, doesn't really know what to do, and we've exacted revenge on him, I suspect we could probably expect the same in return. That's really not where we want to go. Let's see if we can move this in a better direction.
And the final thing I'd say is, if he does retain his chairmanship, we still exert oversight over him and control over him. He doesn't have the ability to just do whatever he wants. The caucus still has the right to remove him from that position at any time if he starts going off on some kind of tangent.
Rachel Maddow...worth switching off.
On Countdown, Keith Olbermann talked with Richard Wolffe about the leaks coming out of the Obama Transition, or lack there of to be more precise. (Keith and Richard actually talk about the leaks 3:10 into the video).
Richard Wolffe gives a clear and concise reason why we should ignore a lot of these stories coming out of the Transition. Very few people in the Transition actually know what is going on. Since none of them are talking, no one else can possibly know what the hell's going on. As a result, you get news stories like the Murdoch Street Journals B.S. from a couple days ago.
But reality never means much to Rachel. Oh no, despite the fact that the Obama ship isn't dripping one bit, she's going to tell me that the "wheels are starting to squeak".
And that's when I shut her off.
It's getting ridiculous. All throughout the General Election, it was Obama isn't doing THIS enough. He's not doing THAT enough. I want him to be doing MORE of THIS. If he wants to win, he should do what I say he needs to do.
Newsflash Rachel. He's won campaigns. You haven't. Until you do, keep your advice to yourself. The President-Elect seems to be doing fine without it.
Begich Takes The Lead
UPDATE: (5:41pm Pacific): What was meant as snark may actually be true.
From Nate Silver:
Roughly 15,000 additional votes have come in in Alaska, with more to come, and Democrat Mark Begich has taken a three-vote lead over Republican Ted Stevens, 125019 to 125016.UPDATE (10:07pm Pacific): Now it's 814 Votes.
More to come tonight and in the coming few days to finish off the race, but given where we expect the remaining votes are located, this looks very good for Begich. It looks very bad for Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, Bill Maher, and Andrew Sullivan, who probably wanted the material if Sarah Palin were to run to replace Stevens in a special election.
TPM: Obama Transition Team Staffs Up Internet Outreach Crew
Looking at Whitehouse.gov, I can only hope so.
Reuters: White House will listen to auto ideas from Congress
A Message from Hawaii...
I was kind of mixed on whether to post this or not, but the Email seems to be geared for as many people as possible. I had been wondering how the family had been doing since Toot's death last week. She seems to be doing okay. Reading the Email, the mix of joy and pain she's going through comes right off the page, as you would expect of anyone who has suffered this kind of loss.
UPDATE (11:08am, Pacific): Time Magazine has a piece on the Email, too.
Leave it to Stephen Colbert...
But he brought on Dan Savage, a gay columnist (and frequent Bill Maher guest) who I normally have a lot of respect for. So there I am holding my breath, wondering what the hell he's going to say about the Black-Gay divide.
Well, Dan Savage did what good columnists are supposed to do. He told me something I didn't know before. He told me that the real problem in the Prop 8 voting here in California wasn't racial, it was generational.
The Colbert Report | Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c | |||
Proposition 8 Protests - Dan Savage | ||||
www.colbertnation.com | ||||
|
Nate Silver backs Dan up.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Massive Layoffs Expected...
Obama Celebrating Veteran's Day...
Hey! I got an idea...
We got Anti-War Liberals calling for Obama to dump Secretary Gates.
We got the Wall Street Journal calling for Obama to keep Secretary Gates.
We got Dean Baker over at TPM saying that Obama shouldn't be listening to his Economic Advisors.
We got Veterans Groups pushing Obama to select Tammy Duckworth as Secretary of Veteran's Affairs.
We got Mayor Adrian Fenty of D.C. pushing the Obamas to put Malia and Sasha into Public Schools.
The line forms around the block, people.
UPDATE (4:31pm Pacific): For the first time ever, I'm going to quote...my Father. Who said in response to this nugget of information:
Dean Baker has it partially right. Clinton left the budget and the economy in good shape which is why the recession was short.
Bush broke his deal with Greenspan; Greenspan was to keep interest rates low and Bush was supposed to curtail "wasteful Clinton era spending", but he never did. Greenspan kept interest rates low and the housing bubble followed.
I don't think it can or should be blamed on Clinton and the Clinton team.
TPM: Taking the Wall Street Journal with a grain of salt perhaps?
A couple of potentially disturbing reports today in the Wall Street Journal, one suggesting that Obama is not going to substantially rein in Bush-era intelligence activities and another reporting that Obama is leaning toward asking Bob Gates to stay on as secretary of defense.
There's tremendous pressure to report out anything that can be gleaned about the transition, so there's a tendency for every scrap of information to get blown out of proportion, making it tough to know how much credence to give any single report. Once you start piling analysis on top of thin reporting, you've got yourself a house of cards held together with conjecture and speculation.
So I'm inclined to keep my powder dry until things shake out a bit more, but watching very closely.
From Salon's Walter Shapiro:
As Valerie Jarrett, co-chair of Obama's transition team, put it with deliberate blandness on "Meet the Press" Sunday: "I think one of the real strengths of Sen. Obama's campaign and now President-elect Obama's transition is that he really does like to think this through thoroughly and not telecast what he's going to do until he's ready to make a decision."
I'm following David Kurtz's suggestion. Until someone from the Office of the President-Elect says it, it ain't worth the paper it's printed on.
The Clintons vs. Obamas media obsession continues...
Nice to see that's over with.
Amazing thing about the story...like the Wall Street Journal story from before, it doesn't say anything. Oh, Hillary is glad to mentor Michelle (duh). Oh, Hillary is trying to figure out her role in the Senate after an unexpected loss (unexpected? She lost six months ago.) Oh, and they're ticked about Obama not helping more to retire their campaign debt.
Uhh, a) maybe she shouldn't have run it up when she knew she going to lose, and b) Barack Obama has kinda been busy since August. You might have read about it in the papers.
Amazing...
But today, the Bush Administration is backing off that assertion, saying there was no quid-pro-quo.
Might've had something to do with the incoming Chief of Staff saying there would be no quid-pro-quo on Trade and Stimulus.
Monday, November 10, 2008
The Wall Street Journal...arrgggh....
NYT: The New New Deal?
"Saving the Taliban for a rainy day??"
But it now seems one of the problems we face in Afghanistan, one of the myriad problems that President Bush failed to comprehend, is the fact that Pakistan is afraid that India is going to make Afghanistan a client state.
This is a transcript from the Frontline Program "The War Briefing". (I was trying to find video, but was unsuccessful):
FRONTLINE NARRATOR: In the years after 9/11, the ISI (Pakistani Intelligence Service) grew worried that without the Taliban as a counterweight, Afghanistan would fall under the influence of its nemesis, India.
Prof. VALI NASR (Tufts University): The fundamental issue is this. Pakistan owned Afghanistan until 2001. We essentially turned Afghanistan into a neutral territory, and the Pakistanis fear that it's actually going to become an Indian territory. That to them is an absolute strategic loss, and they're going to fight it.
STEVE COLL (The New Yorker): The Pakistan army supports the Taliban out of a fear, and that fear is located in the belief that the United States is collaborating with India in Afghanistan to essentially encircle and weaken the Pakistani state.
FRONTLINE NARRATOR: The ISI viewed Afghan president Hamid Karzai with particular suspicion.
ROBERT D. KAPLAN (Atlantic Monthly): President Karzai has been provocatively pro-Indian. He has allowed the Indians to open consulates in Jalalabad, in Kandahar, in other places around Afghanistan. So the Pakistanis are enraged about Karzai. They see this as a pro-Indian state. And in this very difficult, violent part of the world, bad things happen in this situation.
FRONTLINE NARRATOR: When the Indian embassy in Kabul was blown up by a suicide bomber in July 2008, the evidence pointed to Pakistan's ISI and a long-time Afghan Taliban commander, Jalaluddin Haqqani.
STEVE COLL (The New Yorker): There's recent evidence that the Pakistani intelligence service apparently facilitated an attack by Haqqani's group against the Indian embassy in Kabul, the capital.
DEXTER FILKINS (The New York Times): A very senior member of the ISI told my newspaper that, "Jalaluddin Haqqani is one of our assets, and we're not ashamed to say that." Now, that's a pretty remarkable thing to hear from a senior Pakistani official. Pakistan claims to be fighting the Taliban and getting a lot of money from the United States to do that, when, in fact, elements within the Pakistani military and intelligence services have kept the Taliban around. You know, they kept them alive as a kind of insurance policy. I mean, as a former Pakistani official said to me, "We're saving the Taliban for a rainy day."
Four More Years! Four More Years!
Farewell, GITMO! (You won't be missed.)
And let the church say, Amen!
Party music...again provided via Youtube.
UPDATE as of 4:40pm Pacific Time: According to Politico's Whiteboard, Obama has released two statements. "He has not decided whether to close Guantanamo Bay, and he has not decided which executive orders to overturn."
More on this as it becomes available, but so far...I can't find these statements on the web or on the transition website.
UPDATE as of 5:07pm Pacific Time: Okay...now I'm really confused. Politico has taken their story down off the whiteboard, and replaced it with...nothing.
Fallout from Sarah Palin's Two Minutes Hate...
I said it before, I'll said it again. Once you unleash that kind of hatred, it's impossible to control it. Sarah Palin wasn't thinking (she never does). She wanted what she wanted, and that's all that mattered
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Racism. It isn't just for America, anymore...
"Someone regarded by the (American) Republican right as a crypto-communist has become the leader of the world's greatest power ... and al Qaeda are rubbing their hands with glee that the new president wants peace, not war," Artur Gorski of the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party told parliament last week.
"The black messiah of the new left has crushed the Republican candidate John McCain, and America will soon pay a high price for this quirk of democracy," he added.
"Obama is an approaching catastrophe. This marks the end of white man's civilisation," he said in an address.
Post: Bold is Good...
The public's desire for more government action to heal the economy and guarantee health insurance coverage, along with its new skepticism about the deregulation of business, suggests that we are a moderate country that now leans slightly and warily left.This continues to emphasize a point I've been making to Tools on the Left. But Dionne has equal scorn in this piece for Tools on the Right:
But that wariness means that progressives should avoid offering advice based on the assumption that an ideological revolution has already been consummated. They should not imitate the triumphalism of Karl Rove and his acolytes, who interpreted President Bush's 50.8 percent victory in 2004 as the prelude to an enduring Republican majority.
Yet Reagan offers another lesson: His first moves were bold, and Obama should not fear following his example. The president-elect is hearing that his greatest mistake would be something called "overreach." Democrats in Congress, it's implied, are hungry to impose wacky left-wing schemes that Obama must resist.
In fact, timidity is a far greater danger than overreaching, simply because it's quite easy to be cautious. And anyone who thinks House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her followers are ultra-leftist ideologues has been asleep for the past two years. As Pelosi noted in an interview in her office this week, her moves have been shaped by a Democratic House caucus that includes both staunch liberals and resolute moderates. She knows where election victories come from.