Thursday, April 22, 2010

Don't go counting your...ahem...chickens...

Josh has a warning for those who think that the Dems are about to get trouched in the upcoming midterms:

It's easy to overstate the power of money in a political race. So long as both candidates have a threshold amount of money adequate to get a message out, it's hard for a money advantage to save a candidate who has the odds really stacked against them. But Christina Bellantoni points out that a number of the most endangered Senate Dems -- Reid, Lincoln, Specter, Boxer, et al. -- all have lots more money in the bank than their GOP rivals, even as they're struggling to do degrees in the polls. In the case of Harry Reid, for instance, something like 30 times as much as his likely rival.

Money can only do so much. And there's no way national Republicans won't at the very least adequately fund these challengers. But the disparities are great enough that it's made me rethink at least a little what I think is going to happen in these races.