Wednesday, November 3, 2010

It turns out that my shifting 4 points to Democrats in every Rasmussen poll was the right thing to do

It was almost a joke around the office. Every time a Rasmussen poll came out, I would automatically shift four points to the Democrats, because...I would explain...that's just how Rasmussen is.

Turns out, I was absolutely, 100-75% right. I give you, Nate Silver (courtesy of this catch by Andrew Sullivan):

Rasmussen polls quite consistently turned out to overstate the standing of Republicans tonight. Of the roughly 100 polls released by Rasmussen or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research in the final 21 days of the campaign, roughly 70 to 75 percent overestimated the performance of Republican candidates, and on average they were biased against Democrats by 3 to 4 points.