Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Taxes...Part 2

In furtherance to blogosphere paranoia, ace numbers man Nate Silver has jumped into the Taxes stuff:

What this analysis seems to be taking for granted is that the tax cuts are something the Obama administration does not want on their own merits. This, however, is far from self-evident. Obama's economic team is fairly centrist, number one. Obama campaigned on a tax cut, number two (albeit a tax cut paired with a tax hike for the wealthy). And number three, even most liberal economists seem to think that some measure of tax cuts are a decent idea, although there are questions about which taxes should be cut and in what amounts. (Likewise, most conservative economists seem to think that some measure of spending increases are a good idea -- it's just a question of how much).

Basically, I would resist the temptation on either side to see the stimulus in too overtly ideological terms. The ordinary rules are suspended during a severe recession: what matters is -- emperically, theoretically -- What Works. Instead, I would encourage everyone to cut down on their consumption of political blogs for the next few weeks and instead read more of Brad DeLong and Greg Mankiw and Paul Krugman and Tyler Cohen. Those are the sorts of people I'm interested in listening to on this; all others must bring data.

And Richard Wolffe talks up the fact that whatever Stimulus passes by Valentine's Day (the first Congressional Break), is merely Part 1.  Part 2 is coming in the fall.  (Richard's part begins about 2:47 into the piece, but his part about there being a second stimulus begins about 5:58 into the piece).