Erza Klein: "Have fun trying to repeal health-care reform, guys."

From "How health-care repeal will burn the Republicans":

When liberals explain why health care needs an individual mandate, the traditional metaphor is firefighting: Everyone needs to buy insurance for the same reason that everyone needs to buy fire protection. But if you leave the market unregulated, some people won't buy -- or won't be able to afford -- fire protection. And we're not comfortable letting their houses burn down. Similarly, if you leave health coverage to the market, some people won't buy it, and others won't be able to afford it, and then, when they get sick and need it, insurers won't sell it to them. But we're not comfortable letting them die in the streets. Hence, the health-care law.

When Republicans talk about repealing the legislation, they keep the argument abstract. It's about freedom. About American values. About Nancy Pelosi not reading the bill. When they actually try to repeal the legislation, things are going to get concrete in a hurry. It's going to be about this child with that condition being rejected by insurers. And she's going to be adorable, and her parents are going to tearful, and voters will be able to relate.

Already, Republicans are running from that argument, trying to pretend that they'll somehow preserve the protections for preexisting conditions while repealing everything that makes those protections possible. But the bill's unpopular parts are inextricably intertwined with its popular parts. Remove the unpopular ones and you're asking firefighters to sell insurance for homes that are already engulfed in flames.

Here's my prediction for health-care repeal: The GOP will either never really try it, lose on it, or, most likely, cut a deal to add some more conservative pieces to the bill (think malpractice reform, more consumer-driven plans and other things they could've gotten by just negotiating in the first place). But Republicans who think this is going to be easy because public opinion is against the Democrats should remember that before Democrats got a specific bill, public opinion was overwhelmingly on their side. When Republicans are forced to get specific about repeal, they're going to find themselves just as -- if not more -- unpopular. If you're not comfortable explaining why you let someone's house burn down, you're really not going to like explaining why you let insurers turn their sick child away.